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Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
As ground truth data, we use the weekly incident deaths and reported cases from the JHU CSSE group (Dong et al., 2020, 202...
Acquisition and Clearance Dynamics of Campylobacter spp. in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Acquisition and Clearance Dynamics of Campylobacter spp. in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
The prevalence of Campylobacter infection is generally high among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), but...
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: Delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Volume 46, March 2024, 100738Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Highlights•The Scenario ...
Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021
Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021
During September and October 2021, a substantial number of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests in England processed at a...
The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics
The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics
KeywordsInfectious disease modellingDiagnostic test accuracyData AvailabilityAll input data and code used, as well as resu...
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
The time-varying reproduction number R(t) measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely c...
Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation
Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation
To control an outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to understand the different routes of transmission and how...
Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use
Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use
In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics in low endemicity settings...
A case for ongoing structural support to maximise infectious disease modelling efficiency for future public health emergencies: A modelling perspective
A case for ongoing structural support to maximise infectious disease modelling efficiency for future public health emergencies: A modelling perspective
Volume 46, March 2024, 100734Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , Highlights•COVID-19 disease modellers lack...
A method to estimate the serial interval distribution under partially-sampled data
A method to estimate the serial interval distribution under partially-sampled data
Available online 2 December 2023, 100733Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•We develop a novel framework to es...
Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact
Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact
Available online 27 November 2023, 100730Author links open overlay panel, , , , Highlights•We develop a seasonally forced ...
Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease
Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease
Available online 22 November 2023, 100731Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•Reliable metrics of pneumococcal ...
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections
We proposed the SIkJalpha model at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (early 2020). Since then, as the pandemic evolve...
Mathematical methods for scaling from within-host to population-scale in infectious disease systems
Mathematical methods for scaling from within-host to population-scale in infectious disease systems
Available online 30 October 2023, 100724Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•We systematically review the liter...
Modelling outbreak response impact in human vaccine-preventable diseases: A systematic review of differences in practices between collaboration types before COVID-19
Modelling outbreak response impact in human vaccine-preventable diseases: A systematic review of differences in practices between collaboration types before COVID-19
Background:Outbreak response modelling often involves collaboration among academics, and experts from governmental and non...
Trypanosoma cruzi infection in dogs along the US-Mexico border: R0 changes with vector species composition
Trypanosoma cruzi infection in dogs along the US-Mexico border: R0 changes with vector species composition
KeywordsVertical life tablesAutocatalytic modelsCross-sectionalBasic reproduction numberBelgian malinoisGerman shepherdDat...
Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication
Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication
AbbreviationsPPRpeste des petits ruminantsPPRVpeste des petits ruminants virusGSCEGlobal Strategy for Control and Eradicat...
Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics
Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics
Monitoring time-varying vaccine effectiveness (e.g., due to waning of immunity and the emergence of novel variants) provid...
A nationwide lockdown and deaths due to COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent
A nationwide lockdown and deaths due to COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of nationwide lockdowns on health outcomes have been widely studied in Western, ...
Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types
Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types
Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since ...
Epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions of COVID-19 pandemics in Chinese mainland: a trajectory clustering perspective analysis
Epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions of COVID-19 pandemics in Chinese mainland: a trajectory clustering perspective analysis
BackgroundThe corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to more than 210 countries and regions around the w...
Bayesian monitoring of COVID-19 in Sweden
Bayesian monitoring of COVID-19 in Sweden
In an effort to provide regional decision support for the public healthcare, we design a data-driven compartment-based mod...
Estimating age-stratified transmission and reproduction numbers during the early exponential phase of an epidemic: A case study with COVID-19 data
Estimating age-stratified transmission and reproduction numbers during the early exponential phase of an epidemic: A case study with COVID-19 data
In a pending pandemic, early knowledge of age-specific disease parameters, e.g., susceptibility, infectivity, and the clin...
Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals
Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals
Author links open overlay panelCyril Geismar a, Vincent Nguyen b, Ellen Fragaszy c d, Madhumita Shrotri b, Annalan M D Nav...
SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy
Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmiss...
The aquaculture disease network model (AquaNet-Mod): a simulation model to evaluate disease spread and controls for the salmonid industry in England and Wales
Infectious disease causes significant mortality in wild and farmed systems, threatening biodiversity, conservation and ani...
The interplay between susceptibility and vaccine effectiveness control the timing and size of an emerging seasonal influenza wave in England
Relaxing social distancing measures and reduced level of influenza over the last two seasons may lead to a winter 2022 inf...
The effective reproductive number: modeling and prediction with application to the multi-wave Covid-19 pandemic
Classical compartmental models of infectious disease assume that spread occurs through a homogeneous population. This prod...
The role of regular asymptomatic testing in reducing the impact of a COVID-19 wave
Testing for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is an important intervention in reducing onwards transmission of COVID-19, particula...
Public health impact of the U.S. Scenario Modeling Hub
Available online 18 July 2023, 100705Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , AbstractBeginning in December 2020, the CO...
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